Is a Housing Crash Around The Corner….No!

3 Reasons Why We Are Not Heading Toward Another Housing Crash

With home prices softening, some are concerned that we may be headed toward the next housing crash. However, it is important to remember that today’s market is quite different than the bubble market of twelve years ago.

Here are three key metrics that will explain why:

Home Prices
Mortgage Standards
Foreclosure Rates

HOME PRICES

A decade ago, home prices depreciated dramatically, losing about 29% of their value over a four-year period (2008-2011). Today, prices are not depreciating. The level of appreciation is just decelerating.

Home values are no longer appreciating annually at a rate of 6-7%. However, they have still increased by more than 4% over the last year. Of the 100 experts reached for the latest Home Price Expectation Survey, 94 said home values would continue to appreciate through 2019. It will just occur at a lower rate.

MORTGAGE STANDARDS

Many are concerned that lending institutions are again easing standards to a level that helped create the last housing bubble. However, there is proof that today’s standards are nowhere near as lenient as they were leading up to the crash.

The Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center issues a quarterly index which,

“…measures the percentage of home purchase loans that are likely to default—that is, go unpaid for more than 90 days past their due date. A lower HCAI indicates that lenders are unwilling to tolerate defaults and are imposing tighter lending standards, making it harder to get a loan. A higher HCAI indicates that lenders are willing to tolerate defaults and are taking more risks, making it easier to get a loan.”

Last month, their January Housing Credit Availability Index revealed:

“Significant space remains to safely expand the credit box. If the current default risk was doubled across all channels, risk would still be well within the pre-crisis standard of 12.5 percent from 2001 to 2003 for the whole mortgage market.”

FORECLOSURE INVENTORY

Within the last decade, distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) made up 35% of all home sales. The Mortgage Bankers’ Association revealed just last week that:

“The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the fourth quarter was 0.95 percent…This was the lowest foreclosure inventory rate since the first quarter of 1996.”

So, After using these three key housing metrics to compare today’s market to that of the last decade, we can see that the two markets are nothing alike.

Begin Your Naples Property Search

So, if you’re ready to begin your search for your own Naples home, or a southwest Florida Luxury home or condo, we encourage you to explore our website to find information about communities in the area. If golf is your game, we specialize in golf community real estate and would be happy to help you navigate the more than 150 different golf communities in our area. If you prefer a more direct approach, we will provide a list of properties that meet your criteria and/or communities that meet your needs.

Also, if you are considering new construction, remember the contractor’s real estate agent represents the builder’s best interest, not yours. There is no cost for you to have an agent represent you. In fact, we may be able to help you save money and negotiate for extras which the builder may not let you know about.

Lastly, we will handle all contract negotiations for your property from offer to close!

Considering Selling your home?

If you are looking to sell a home in Bonita Springs, Estero or Naples, we encourage you to work with a Professional Real Estate Agent or REALTOR® who has the experience and knowledge to provide an accurate market comparison so you can determine the right asking price. If you live in a golf community in southwest Florida, you are competing with more than 150 other golf communities. Contact us today to learn how your home or condo stacks up against the competition and how we can position your property to sell quickly and for a fair price.

Bottom Line

A housing crash is not around the corner, in fact it is an excellent time to buy. So, if you’re looking for a focused and goal-oriented real estate representative in Naples, Bonita Springs or Estero who will help you achieve your Real Estate needs, please reach out to me directly.

Additionally, if you are looking for a golf community expert or you are considering buying or selling a home, a luxury home, luxury vacation home, luxury golf home or dream home, call me or text me on my mobile phone at 239-370-0892 or email me at Matt@NaplesGolfGuy.com

About Matthew Klinowski, PA